The Spring Triad/Susquehanna Poll was conducted between March 5 and 10 among 700 registered and active voters.  The pollsters also interviewed additional registered Democrats in order to create a sample of 500 interviews for the Clinton/Obama matchup in order to increase the reliability of the data.

Looking ahead to November, the basic 700 voters interviewed split over who would get their vote depending on who wins the Democratic nomination.  With Clinton as the nominee, Pennsylvania voters interviewed would go for Clinton by a slim, 47-44 margin over the apparent Republican nominee, U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona.  If Obama is the Democratic standard-bearer, voters would give McCain a 45-41 advantage over the Illinois Senator.

“We wanted to get this poll in the field as soon as possible to see what effect, if any, the votes in Ohio and Texas might have had on Clinton’s early lead among Pennsylvania voters,” said Roy Wells, President of Triad Strategies.  “It appears that – in part buoyed by the Ohio and Texas wins – her support remains strong in Pennsylvania.”

James Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling and Research, said increasing the sample of Democratic voters 500 was necessary to boost the polls accuracy and ensures that Clinton’s lead is statistically sound.  “With a 500 voter sample, you can say that not only is she ahead at this point but that it is a strong lead coming in the latter stages of a long primary season,” Lee said.

Wells said Clinton’s strength in Pennsylvania is similar to her showing in Ohio.  “She is winning due to her support among older voters, blue collar ‘Reagan Democrats,’ those with less than a college education and lower income households,” Wells noted. “Obama is winning with the state’s younger voters, the more affluent and in the inner cities.”

Geographically, Clinton leads in Northwest Pennsylvania, 41 to 27, in the Southwestern counties around Allegheny County, 59 to 10, in the state’s “T” – which includes the Johnstown/Altoona television market, 50 to 24, and in the Northeast, 56 to 18.

Obama leads only in the Harrisburg/South Central region (37 to 33) and Philadelphia (49 to 30), while the Philadelphia suburban counties of Bucks, Chester, Montgomery and Delaware lean for Clinton by a 42 to 35 margin. 

            “For Obama to close this lead, he'll need to rely on huge turnout of new voters since Pennsylvania is a closed primary,” Lee said. “He'll either need to win the Southeast by a big margin, or cut into Clinton's lead with Reagan Democrats by stressing that he is the best candidate to address economic anxieties like free trade, the loss of manufacturing jobs and health care.  Failure to do this means Clinton could win the state by a bigger margin than she carried Ohio.”

The only other statewide race on the April 22 Primary Election ballot is the Democratic race for state Treasurer.  Among Democratic voters (500 interviews), a whopping 82 percent said they are undecided for whom they would vote for state Treasurer (the vacancy created last year when then-Treasurer Bob Casey moved up to the U.S. Senate).  Among those who have made a choice, a large plurality appear to prefer state Rep. Jennifer Mann of Lehigh County over former state Rep. John Cordisco of Bucks County, Montgomery County businessman Rob McCord or community activist Dennis Morrison-Wesley of Philadelphia.  The split was Mann, 8 percent; Cordisco, 2 percent; McCord, 3 percent; and, Morrison-Wesley, 2 percent.

Reflecting national concerns about the state of the economy, respondents to the Triad/Susquehanna Poll identified the economy, jobs and unemployment as the most important problem facing Pennsylvania today (28 percent) with taxes at Number 2 (19 percent) followed by healthcare and prescription drugs (8 percent) and education and schools (7 percent).

Among the general sample (700 voters), 46 percent say the country is “in recession now” with an additional 34 percent saying we “will enter recession in the next several months.”  Only 17 percent believe we “will avoid recession.”  Similar numbers were expressed about the state economy with 37 percent saying we are in recession now; 36 percent saying we were facing recession in coming months and 22 percent saying we will avoid recession.

When asked about the best ways to stimulate job creation and economic development, 28 percent identified lowering business and personal income taxes.  Another 17 percent said repairing and expanding the state’s infrastructure including roads, bridges and highways while offering guaranteed healthcare coverage for all Pennsylvanians ranked third at 16 percent.  A total of 15 percent chose creation of an energy independence fund to bolster the state’s production of alternative fuels while 13 percent voted for increasing state funding for public education.  Only 1 percent said providing funding for new sports stadiums, convention centers and other community projects was the best way to stimulate jobs and economic development.

Infrastructure concerns were reflected as well by poll participants when they were asked to rank the overall condition of roads, bridges and highways in their areas.  A total of 79 percent ranked the conditions as fair and poor while only 21 percent gave roads, bridges and highways a good or excellent rating.

A total of 78 percent said they would “support an increase in state funding to improve the state’s roads, bridges and highways,” in light of a transportation study commission report identifying a need for some $1 billion a year for repairs and upgrading.  Only 16 percent said they would oppose an increase in spending.  A total of 85 percent said the state needed to address the transportation funding “even if it means increasing taxes or fees or making cuts in other programs.”

A clear majority of voters interviewed (56 percent) said they were willing to pay more – from $8 to $20 a month – for better roads and bridges.  A total of 39 percent said they would pay $8 a month more; 11 percent said $15 a month; and, 6 percent said $20 a month.  A total of 32 percent said we do not need to repair or expand the highway system in Pennsylvania so they wanted to pay nothing more.

The new Triad Strategies/Susquehanna Polling survey (download the results) showed Rendell’s approval rating at 54 percent, down somewhat from his career high of 59 percent recorded in the Fall Triad/Susquehanna Poll, shortly before his landslide re-election over Republican Lynn Swann.

 Highlights of the survey of 700 registered and frequent Pennsylvania voters conducted between Feb. 15 and 20:

• Rendell’s approval rating in the February survey stood at 54 percent, 5 points off his career high 59 percent approval rating he clocked in October 2006 while he was spending millions on commercials to promote his landslide re-election.  In fact, the 5-point gap is only slightly above the survey’s 3.7 percent margin of error.  The February 2007 mark is also substantially higher than the 49 percent approval he received in the April 2006 poll.
• On his initiatives to plug the state’s revenue gap, he faces an uphill fight on the concept of increasing the state sales tax from 6 to 7 percent and a steeper climb to win support for his proposal to lease the Pennsylvania Turnpike to set up a trust fund that could return as much as $1 billion a year in earnings to the state to meet transportation and transit needs.
• His proposal to help reduce health care costs by encouraging hospitals and others to set up urgent care clinics to provide an alternative to costly trips to hospital emergency rooms got a very positive response with 77 percent saying they were likely or very likely to use such facilities.
• A total of 61 percent applaud his proposal to increase state funding for pre-kindergarten education programs by $75 million (30 percent oppose).
• Windmills – part of the Governor’s alternative energy initiatives – also won strong support with 78 percent in favor compared to 11 percent opposed and 10 percent undecided.
• The approval rating for the state legislature remains at relatively low ebb.  Overall, 30 percent of Pennsylvania voters surveyed said they approve of the job the state House and Senate are doing in Harrisburg.  A total of 45 percent disapprove.  On the plus side, it seems to be on an upward trend with the approve/disapprove ratio moving from 23/52 in April 2006 to 28/50 in October 2006 to 30/45 in February.

“A lesser political leader would have been badly bruised by what happened in February,” said Roy Wells, president of Triad Strategies. “A budget with a huge ‘structural deficit,’ a proposed increase in the state sales tax and a botched clean-up of a major snowstorm yet he takes only a hit of a few percentage points.  That’s impressive.”

 The survey director, James Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling and Research, “He takes a hit in most regions of the state but continues to be show strength in Philadelphia and the southeastern counties..”  He noted that where the highway closures hit hardest – the Anthracite Region, the Poconos and the Lehigh Valley – Rendell’s approval/disapproval ratio in April 2006 was 51/37.  His popularity peaked in the October 2006 poll at 62/27.  In the February poll, he registered 42-38.

The poll indicated that Pennsylvania voters remain concerned about taxes.  One in three voters say that taxes are the single most important issue they want officials in Harrisburg to address.  In the Northwest, where the Governor’s popularity is high, only one in four voters see taxes as the biggest issue.  In the South Central Pennsylvania and Southwestern Pennsylvania counties outside of Allegheny County, where 42 percent and 41 percent of the voters identified taxes as the top issue, Rendell’s approval rating has ebbed 39 and 42 percent.  In Philadelphia, the Rendell stronghold, only one in eight named taxes as the top issue with one in four choosing drugs, crime and violence as the biggest problem for Harrisburg to tackle.