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The 'Diamond Factor' practically invisible in first poll since self-proclaimed reformer promises run for governor |
May 3, 2006
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HARRISBURG (May 3) – In the first statewide poll released since self-declared political reformer Russell Diamond of Lebanon announced his intent to run for Governor, the numbers show his candidacy would have little or no effect on the final outcome of the contest.
In a poll conducted April 17 through 21 by Triad Strategies and Susquehanna Polling and Research, Diamond, a Lebanon small business owner and founder of PACleanSweep, aimed at dumping incumbents in the 2006 elections, is still an unknown quantity to 79 percent of the voters.
A head-to-head match-up with incumbent Democrat Gov. Ed Rendell and Republican challenger Lynn Swann, Diamond ranks in the single digits, behind “undecided.”
Diamond, who needs to gather 67,000 signatures to get on the fall ballot as an independent, declared his candidacy earlier in April. Triad and Susquehanna Polling interviewed 700 registered Pennsylvania voters – asking them first to choose between only Rendell and Swann and then asking them to consider Diamond as well.
In the first match-up, Rendell polled 49 percent to the pro football Hall of Famer’s 36 percent with 12 percent undecided. Adding in Diamond, Rendell’s vote dropped to 45 percent and Swann’s, to 32 percent. Diamond received 6 percent of the vote while the undecided factor increased to 15 percent. (The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percent.
“Diamond appears to draw votes equally from the incumbent and the challenger,” said Roy Wells, Triad President. “Conventional wisdom suggests that since both Swann and Diamond share a message of ‘we’re not from Harrisburg,’ Diamond should pull more from the Republican challenger.”
Jim Lee, President of Susquehanna Polling and Research, said the outcome suggests someone who is neither a Democrat nor a Republican has some appeal – but not enough to win a statewide election.
“We also asked voters if they approve or disapprove of the job the state House and Senate are doing in Harrisburg,” Lee said. “The result was 23 percent approval and 52 percent disapproval.”
Despite extensive media exposure since PACleanSweep was launched to protest the aborted legislative pay raise last year, Diamond is not well known to voters. Only 5 percent said they hold a favorable opinion of Diamond while 3 percent said they have a negative opinion.
Gene Stilp, another self-declared reformer who has shared the podium with Diamond at numerous protest rallies, shares a similar fate in his effort to win the Democratic Primary for Lieutenant Governor. Only 15 percent of the voters say they recognize Stilp’s name. A total of 4 percent have a favorable opinion while 1 percent say they have a negative opinion.
By contrast, incumbent Lt. Gov. Catherine Baker Knoll is recognized by 81 percent of the voters, with 37 percent reporting a favorable opinion of here and 12 percent a negative view.
According to the Triad-Susquehanna Poll, Baker Knoll should win the Primary easily on May 16. A total of 49 percent of registered Democrats said they intended to vote for Baker Knoll, compared to 9 percent for Valerie McDonald Roberts, 2 percent for Stilp and 1 percent for William Hall.
Incumbent state Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. should do even better on Primary day, according to the poll. A total of 68 percent of Democrats polled said they would vote for Casey compared to 2 percent for Alan Sandals and 3 percent for Chuck Pennacchio.
The Triad/Susquehanna Poll shows Casey with a continuing lead over GOP incumbent U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum. If the election were held today, 52 percent of the voters would choose Casey over the third-ranking Republican in the U.S. Senate, who would receive 35 percent of the vote.
“It’s a long way until November but if Santorum intends to close the gap, he will have to make a move soon to stifle the Casey tide,” Lee said. “Right now, Casey has an approval rating of 49 percent compared to negatives of 36 percent. Santorum, meanwhile, has a 38 percent approval rating compared to negatives of 40 percent. That pretty much tells the whole story as it stands at this time.”
Wells said that, overall, voters remain concerned about taxes, jobs and economy.
“A total of 26 percent said taxes were the single most important issue they want elected officials in Harrisburg to address,” Wells said. “Jobs and the economy was second at 16 percent.”
He noted that 7 percent of voters now believe that gas and energy prices are the most important issue. “Gasoline prices were nudging $3 a gallon when we conducted the survey,” he noted. |
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