HARRISBURG (March 12) – In the first Pennsylvania-based poll released since the Texas and Ohio primaries, U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York leads U.S. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois among likely Democratic voters by a 45 to 31 margin with 19 percent undecided, according to numbers released this morning by Triad Strategies, LLC, and Susquehanna Polling and Research.

The Spring Triad/Susquehanna Poll was conducted between March 5 and 10 among 700 registered and active voters.  The pollsters also interviewed additional registered Democrats in order to create a sample of 500 interviews for the Clinton/Obama matchup in order to increase the reliability of the data.

Looking ahead to November, the basic 700 voters interviewed split over who would get their vote depending on who wins the Democratic nomination.  With Clinton as the nominee, Pennsylvania voters interviewed would go for Clinton by a slim, 47-44 margin over the apparent Republican nominee, U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona.  If Obama is the Democratic standard-bearer, voters would give McCain a 45-41 advantage over the Illinois Senator.

“We wanted to get this poll in the field as soon as possible to see what effect, if any, the votes in Ohio and Texas might have had on Clinton’s early lead among Pennsylvania voters,” said Roy Wells, President of Triad Strategies.  “It appears that – in part buoyed by the Ohio and Texas wins – her support remains strong in Pennsylvania.”

James Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling and Research, said increasing the sample of Democratic voters 500 was necessary to boost the polls accuracy and ensures that Clinton’s lead is statistically sound.  “With a 500 voter sample, you can say that not only is she ahead at this point but that it is a strong lead coming in the latter stages of a long primary season,” Lee said.

Wells said Clinton’s strength in Pennsylvania is similar to her showing in Ohio.  “She is winning due to her support among older voters, blue collar ‘Reagan Democrats,’ those with less than a college education and lower income households,” Wells noted. “Obama is winning with the state’s younger voters, the more affluent and in the inner cities.”

Geographically, Clinton leads in Northwest Pennsylvania, 41 to 27, in the Southwestern counties around Allegheny County, 59 to 10, in the state’s “T” – which includes the Johnstown/Altoona television market, 50 to 24, and in the Northeast, 56 to 18.

Obama leads only in the Harrisburg/South Central region (37 to 33) and Philadelphia (49 to 30), while the Philadelphia suburban counties of Bucks, Chester, Montgomery and Delaware lean for Clinton by a 42 to 35 margin. 

            “For Obama to close this lead, he'll need to rely on huge turnout of new voters since Pennsylvania is a closed primary,” Lee said. “He'll either need to win the Southeast by a big margin, or cut into Clinton's lead with Reagan Democrats by stressing that he is the best candidate to address economic anxieties like free trade, the loss of manufacturing jobs and health care.  Failure to do this means Clinton could win the state by a bigger margin than she carried Ohio.”

The only other statewide race on the April 22 Primary Election ballot is the Democratic race for state Treasurer.  Among Democratic voters (500 interviews), a whopping 82 percent said they are undecided for whom they would vote for state Treasurer (the vacancy created last year when then-Treasurer Bob Casey moved up to the U.S. Senate).  Among those who have made a choice, a large plurality appear to prefer state Rep. Jennifer Mann of Lehigh County over former state Rep. John Cordisco of Bucks County, Montgomery County businessman Rob McCord or community activist Dennis Morrison-Wesley of Philadelphia.  The split was Mann, 8 percent; Cordisco, 2 percent; McCord, 3 percent; and, Morrison-Wesley, 2 percent.

Reflecting national concerns about the state of the economy, respondents to the Triad/Susquehanna Poll identified the economy, jobs and unemployment as the most important problem facing Pennsylvania today (28 percent) with taxes at Number 2 (19 percent) followed by healthcare and prescription drugs (8 percent) and education and schools (7 percent).

Among the general sample (700 voters), 46 percent say the country is “in recession now” with an additional 34 percent saying we “will enter recession in the next several months.”  Only 17 percent believe we “will avoid recession.”  Similar numbers were expressed about the state economy with 37 percent saying we are in recession now; 36 percent saying we were facing recession in coming months and 22 percent saying we will avoid recession.

When asked about the best ways to stimulate job creation and economic development, 28 percent identified lowering business and personal income taxes.  Another 17 percent said repairing and expanding the state’s infrastructure including roads, bridges and highways while offering guaranteed healthcare coverage for all Pennsylvanians ranked third at 16 percent.  A total of 15 percent chose creation of an energy independence fund to bolster the state’s production of alternative fuels while 13 percent voted for increasing state funding for public education.  Only 1 percent said providing funding for new sports stadiums, convention centers and other community projects was the best way to stimulate jobs and economic development.

Infrastructure concerns were reflected as well by poll participants when they were asked to rank the overall condition of roads, bridges and highways in their areas.  A total of 79 percent ranked the conditions as fair and poor while only 21 percent gave roads, bridges and highways a good or excellent rating.

A total of 78 percent said they would “support an increase in state funding to improve the state’s roads, bridges and highways,” in light of a transportation study commission report identifying a need for some $1 billion a year for repairs and upgrading.  Only 16 percent said they would oppose an increase in spending.  A total of 85 percent said the state needed to address the transportation funding “even if it means increasing taxes or fees or making cuts in other programs.”

A clear majority of voters interviewed (56 percent) said they were willing to pay more – from $8 to $20 a month – for better roads and bridges.  A total of 39 percent said they would pay $8 a month more; 11 percent said $15 a month; and, 6 percent said $20 a month.  A total of 32 percent said we do not need to repair or expand the highway system in Pennsylvania so they wanted to pay nothing more.