The House and Senate return next week with some unfinished business to handle before the holiday break.  Will the old adage still apply that “deals get done in December” or will both chambers, exhausted from the budget impasse, just drop back and punt?  Let’s take a look at four issues and what we think will happen.

1.       Table games -- The final piece of the budget agreement and its $200 million impact on this year’s bottom line sits in the House, where leaders are cautiously predicting a vote as early as Tuesday of next week.  The sticking points are still local revenue sharing; potential expansion of Resort Licenses; potential expansion of services under existing Resort Licenses; reform of the original slots law; and tax rates.  Remember that the issue of local revenue sharing from slots casinos was such a contentious subject that it delayed the passage of slot machine gaming for months.  As of this afternoon, we are cautiously optimistic that a deal will get done before Santa comes a-boppin’ down the chimney.

2.       Non-Preferred Appropriations – Over $700 million in funding for colleges and universities is cooling its heels in the big vault, waiting for table games to pass and the state budget to therefore be in balance.  Or is it?  Sources are now saying that if table games negotiations go “Ace-Deuce,” which is to say crash and burn, that somehow, some way the Rendell Administration will find enough to fill the $200 million hole and release the non-preferreds anyway.  Lawmakers have not yet felt the full wrath of colleges and universities, but as fall turns to winter, Blue and White may just unleash the hounds.  Therefore we predict that by hook or crook, the non-preferred appropriations will find their way to Rendell’s desk imminently.

3.       Capital Debt Act – House Bill 1418, which would authorize the state to raise $775 million in general obligation bonds for ongoing projects, is stalled in the state senate, which caused Rendell’s budget office to announce this morning that they have suspended payments to almost 1,000 projects across PA, totaling $375 million.   The governor is apparently taking a hard line on the passage of this bill, and banking that the hue and cry that results when contractors, builders, laborers and developers stop getting checks will be enough to move the bill along.  We say the chances of this bill passing are at best 50-50, as the Senate GOP leadership team usually does not respond well to these types of subtle (or in this case not so subtle) threats.

4.       Rate Cap Mitigation/Alternative Energy -- Yes, the rate caps on electricity expire in parts of the state on January 1, 2010.  And yes, there are some folks who are loudly advocating for an extension of those caps.  But no, do not bet the farm that you will see any movement in that area.  In the waning days of Session, the House will not want to waste several days sifting through amendments, especially since the Senate is not inclined to act either way.  Ditto for House Bill 80, which makes wholesale changes to the Alternative Energy Portfolio Act.  Look for these two issues, especially the alternative energy bill, to re-surface next year.

Those are our bets as of today.  Check back for new developments as we move toward the final weeks of the 2009 session calendar.